Economics Tricks

we have seen the fallout from rising gas & oil prices for the past year. It is one thing we can't do a darn thing about but doom & gloom isn't what we need right now. We just have to work smarter.

Indeed, that is right about right. If you ask folks in various industries about how they feel they will tell you. Many sub-markets are really hurting, take the smaller cities in the hills of Arizona for instance. The folks did not drive up to Flagstaff to get out of the Phoenix heat for the day much this summer either, I guess by the time you drive out of Phoenix with the air-conditioning blazing up that hill, you have killed a half-a-tank. I talked to some shop owners downtown there, they said things were tight.

Some of my family in "Winslow" Arizona, tell me the store was not as busy there either, fewer travelers, fewer RVs on the road, etc. It is obvious that people are traveling less and some travel destinations suffer, others do well, which are closer. Amazing that Airline travel is up and driving travel is down, but then again, my last trip from CA to DC in the motor coach was $3300 in fuel as opposed to $1200 back in 2002 and $800 in 1999.

So, I suppose I understand better why people are traveling less by car, but it can affect some economies more than others and these are challenges that must be faced head on and applied directly to the forehead to figure it all out. Of course, high oil challenges are not our only problems, through in a little politics, such as the anti-Corporate speech from Edwards and the Oprhama - after their Iowa caucus victory calling for complete change, + the $100 per barrel prices the stock market went immediately to where the analysts said it should be and thus the technical traders were right.

Many anticipated all this and sold all their stocks on December 30 at the end of the Santa Clause Rally. Why, well, believing that Auto, Retail, etc. would report poorly and the slowing economic figures too (most of which are BS inflated embellishment anyway, the reality is much worse). More questions, why, well, due to off-shoring, outsourcing, layoffs, trade deficit and of course, high oil, which is killing the little business person and families (consumer confidence and spending) too.

With the stock market back down, soon we could be looking at another up-trend, as the FED will have to shore up investor confidence too with a rate cut. We have been discussing here at the Think Tank a 2.5 year bottom in real estate from now and buying in along the way would make sense. Additionally, we see this stock market testing twice with some volatile mood swings and an occasional bad hair day, and flat for a week and then back up it shall climb, not like a Saturn V rocket, but upward like the Peloton Pack in the Tour de France. Think on it.

**Note: I am not a financial advisor, these are my sole opinions based on a radio show script I have been writing for an interview tomorrow, which could change at will. If you are looking for good advice call Jim Cramer and read his disclaimer to understand the reality of financial advice on TV, radio or the Internet.